FA Premier League 2012-2013 preview

So the football is finally back! Six or seven weeks have never seemed so long. As much as I have enjoyed the Olympics, and my love for all sport has most definitely been affirmed, there is nothing quite like football.

Today’s curtain raiser (still The Charity Shield in my mind!) may be an indicator of where the title is heading, as I can really only see the true race for the championship being between Chelsea and Manchester City. Chelsea have been the biggest spenders so far signing Marin, the brothers Hazard and Oscar; I think the true test of their season will be how well they cope without Didier Drogba. If Torres comes good they will be half way there, but they’re still light up top if you ask me. There is talk of Neymar but he’s no Drogba. If they go down that route they’ll only be able to play one way which isn’t great for any team.

Manchester City on the other hand are starting to flex their muscles by signing Jack Rodwell from Everton. I hope the rumours are not true, but if they can sign Daniel Agger from Liverpool as well they would become an even more formidable outfit. If that deal gets done, I hope it involves Adam Johnson going the other way. It’s criminal how much time one of England’s brightest talents has spent sat on the bench. You do have to wonder where the Sheikh’s spending spree will end. Maybe it won’t! Perhaps the biggest surprise in the close-season so far is that Manchester United have only signed Shinji Kagawa. I know there are still a couple of weeks to go until the transfer window closes, but it would be highly unusual if the Red Devils don’t make one marquis signing. I think in general the window has been quiet so far, and this might be because most first team European players have been on duty at either Euro 2012 or the London Olympics; consequently they have been at least a couple of weeks behind the rest of the squad in getting back to pre-season training. It might liven up in the last week or so when managers have had chance to fully assess their players. 

So aside of who might win the Premier League this year, the other main questions is who will stay up? All three promoted teams would have high hopes of remaining in the Premier League, and who could blame them. Reading and Southampton dominated the Coca Cola Championship last year, and West Ham were not too far behind. That coupled with the fact that  Aston Villa, Wigan and QPR hardly covered themselves in glory in staying up by a hairs breadth. It could be the most open Premier League from the top four downwards that we have ever seen. With six clubs having new managers, and a couple more that have only been at their respective clubs for half a season, there is a good chance of some very unpredictable results early on this year.   

Premier League Predictions

Top four - 1. Manchester City 2. Chelsea 3. Manchester United 4. Arsenal

Bottom three - Wigan, West Brom, Norwich. 

I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate everybody who has been part of organising the London 2012 Olympics. I won't deny that I was a bit sceptical about how much of a success the games would be, but I have to say I have enjoyed them more than I ever thought I would. I've watched and enjoyed some sports that I would normally not bother with, and the events I was looking forward to were better than I thought they would be. All the competitors have taken part with maximum effort (with exception to the odd badminton player!) and absolute grace; in victory and defeat. I give particular congratulations to every member of Team GB. Everyone knows who the greatest successes have been, but they should all be proud of creating the greatest Olympic Games that I can remember, and possibly ever. 

Team GB's medallists on the roof of HQ.

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The Plight of Portsmouth FC

 I have written about the disgraceful situation at Portsmouth briefly before, when Rangers were hanging on to their position in the SPL by a thread, but with only five days left to resolve the club's issues things are now looking desperate. The two potential buyers of the club, The Pompey Supporters Trust and Portpin (Balram Chanrai's organisation), have placed conditional offers on the table but the main condition is that all players either take substantial reductions in their wages or leave the club altogether. Most have done this already, but Tal Ben Haim and Liam Lawrence remain 'on the books' at the moment although it has been reported that deals are close for both. Should both players leave the club in the coming days, the next choice would be which bidder is preferred? As an outsider, there should only be one winner and they are the Pompey Supporters Trust. After all, Balram Chanrai has been part of the circus of the last few years and has had his chance; and fan ownership should be seriously considered as a viable option. There are several instances in England of fan ownership, most notably Wycombe Wanderers, Wrexham, Ebbsfleet, AFC Wimbledon and FC United of Manchester. If it can work for some, why not others? In Germany it is a legal requirement to have fan ownership of at least 51%; when Red Bull acquired SSV Markranstadt and renamed the football team RB Leipzig it could only acquire 49% of the shares, and they weren't allowed to use the full Red Bull name due to other German rules. They may be only in the Regionalliga Nord which makes up part of the fifth tier of German football, but Dietrich Mateschitz (Red Bull owner) is an incredibly astute businessman and he's invested in many sporting franchises as well as other football clubs; things that this man turn his hand to tend to be a success. With this kind of model as an example, why can't it work for Portsmouth? Maybe they could be the first side to achieve real success with fans as owners. The gentlemen concerned might have a few more quid than the average football fan, but they are fans nonetheless so they would have the interests of other fans, as well as the club at heart. Ian McInnes who is one of the 'high net worth individuals' that look to be providing the main funds for the bid, says that 'outside his family, Portsmouth football club is the most important thing in his life' and 'the city would die without the football club as a heartbeat.' He would know. He began his life in the humble surroundings of Portsmouth's northern suburb Paulsgrove, and Portsmouth has been in his blood ever since. As well as the four individuals backing the trust, McInnes intimated that there was a 'major backer from left field' who is looking to meet with the trust to discuss investment, so even if things are looking a bit cloudy on the horizon at the moment there's bright sunlight behind there somewhere. Perhaps the first hurdle to overcome will be the biggest of all; getting Chanrai and the two remaining players to walk away so a deal can be done with the Trevor Birch and the administrators to secure the future of this club that means so much to the people of this fantastic historic city. Portsmouth may not be my club, but I live close to the city and a lot of my friends are Pompey fans so I know for a fact that extinction for this club and city is not an option. I am not one to publicise things on this website, but if anybody wants information on the trust the best place to go is www.pompeytrust.com. I wish a great deal of luck to the loudest fans the Premier League has ever seen, and hope to see you back there soon. 

SPORT SHORTS

Well, Team GB have had a bit of a turn-around at the Olympics haven't they? Crikey.This time last week we had two or three medals. Now we have twenty nine medals including fourteen golds and we're up to third in the medals table. Last night was an amazing spectacle as Jessica Ennis (Heptathlon), Greg Rutherford (Long jump) and Mo Farah (10,000m) all made the top step of the rostrum within a literal 'Golden Hour' by crushing their opponents. There are more medals in prospect today with Andy Murray already guaranteed two Silver medals at least, and others being contested in sailing, athletics and more cycling at the velodrome.COME ON TEAM GB!

The England v South Africa test match at Headingley is finely poised with things just about even as rain stopped play just before lunch on Sunday. Kevin Pietersen's 149 and Matt Prior's 68 have given England a platform to build on. I think this game has draw written all over it, but if the bowlers can have a good day there's a slim chance of a win. All to play for in the battle for best Test side in the world.

With the English Premier League season a fortnight away, the transfer rumours are starting to spread. Manchester United are said to be preparing to bid £30m for Brazil's Lucas Moura and £20m for Arsenal's Robin van Persie. 
Also, I think this one is somewhat unlikely, but it's being reported that Manchester City are thinking about buying Scott Sinclair from Swansea. Has Roberto Mancini got a blind spot where Adam Johnson is concerned; He can send him to Anfield if he wants! Liverpool have apparently made a bid £12.5m for Uruguayan Gaston Ramirez. We must have some sort of interest in Uruguayan exports! 
(C)ashley Cole wants to be paid £200,000 a week. Enough said.  

Back next week with a full Premier League preview. 

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Boxing bad news; Again!

I am sure most will be aware that boxing has been making headlines this week for the wrong reasons; again! To be honest, it is not too often that boxing makes headlines for good reasons, which is a shame because boxing does a lot of good things. The amount of boxers you hear of that say ‘I would have been in prison or dead if it wasn’t for boxing’ but nobody ever mentions the good side of the game. 

Lamont Peterson v Amir Khan

 So to the first of the controversies; Amir Khan v Lamont Peterson is off after Peterson tested positive for synthetic testosterone which is a banned substance. Peterson’s camp has maintained that the substance was taken due to a medical condition, but there is really no defence. The test that found the testosterone was by the Voluntary anti-doping Association (VADA), i.e. not a mandatory test! Bearing this in mind, if there was nothing to hide surely they would have declared this with Nevada State Athletic Commission and sought some kind of exemption due to the medical condition. I certainly feel sorry for Khan as he was definitely seeking redemption. He knew that something wasn’t right in the first fight, but could never say anything really. I heard Johnny Nelson (former WBO world cruiser-weight champ) say this week ‘you can’t say anything at the time because you either look like a cry baby or you get sued when the tests come back negative.’ From one side Khan now has some justification for the fight in December, but on the other hand is now unlikely to prove in the ring that he is the better fighter. Perhaps the worst part for Khan and Golden Boy Promotions is that they were not informed on April 12^th when the results were discovered, and they could have perhaps rescued the show by finding another opponent, but it was left to nearly a month later until a week before the fight when nothing could be done. They should not expect a Christmas card from Oscar de la Hoya or Richard Schaefer any time soon!

David Haye and Dereck Chisora

 

And now to the second controversy; Dereck Chisora v David Haye. The main issues seem to come from the British boxing board of control (BBBoC), and the fact that they feel they have been undermined by what has gone on. If they did not want the boxers to seek a license from another board, they should have not just suspended Chisora’s license, (and told him he could get a license from another board!) they should have banned him. Full stop. Then this could never have happened. As they didn’t, Frank Warren was entitled to seek a license from another board, and the fact that it was the Luxembourg Boxing Federation is irrelevant; Warren said this week that they had a number of offers from various boards.

I’ll be honest, I think Chisora should have been banned. To do what he did to the Klitschko brothers in the build-up to his fight with Vitali in February was disgraceful. To disrespect two of the longest standing world champions in such a way was childish to say the least. If I had been in Frank Warren’s position I would have sacked Chisora there and then, but perhaps he could see this fight coming a long way off. Forty thousand paying fans at Upton Park was too much to turn down. Having been to several Frank Warren shows over the years, I would not be surprised if the fight is a damp squib. Certainly the shows I have been to have been more hype than talent in the main. There has been the odd exception of course.  We'll find out on July 15th, one way or the other. 

SPORT SHORTS

•  The Premier league concludes today and all is to play for at the top and bottom. The key fixtures are Sunderland v Man Utd and Man City v QPR. Man Utd must win to have a chance of taking the title, but if Man City beat QPR that result is irrelevant. A point should be enough for QPR, but you can bet your bottom dollar that Owen Coyle will be the biggest Man City fan today. A City win means Bolton can escape the drop at the expense of QPR if they beat Stoke, and lets face it, Stoke look like they've been on holiday for about six weeks already. I'm not sure it's as cut and dry as some Man City fans think. We'll see later on. 
• Golf's unofficial 5th major, The Players Championship at Sawgrass, concludes today with the much maligned Kevin Na in the lead; although he is only one clear so all to play for. Brian Davis and Martin Laird lead the British charge although they are both six back. As we have seen, errant shots can easily bring bogeys so they are in with a chance. 
• Roy Hodgson is to name his first England squad this week for Euro 2012, and the main issue (Ferdinand or Terry, or both?) looks like it might resolve itself as Sir Alex Ferguson has questioned whether Ferdinand is up to the task. For the record, neither would be in my starting line-up. More to follow in due course.

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English football season climax

This time of year is normally quite sad, because as exciting as it is, the football season is coming to an end. At least this year we'll have Euro 2012 and the Olympics in London to get us through the summer!

The Football League season came to a conclusion yesterday, with Southampton taking the final automatic promotion place to the join Reading in the Premier League next season. 
And although Wolves will be playing in the Championship next year, all is still to play for in the fight to beat the drop. I have to make special mention of Wolves and their manager Terry Connor who put on a fantastic display yesterday, even though they were only playing for pride. I think Mick McCarthy, Terry Connor, the players and the fans of Wolves have been treated despicably by the board of their club and even though things have not always gone right for them on the pitch they will go down with dignity. 

Swansea v Wolves

Terry Connor should never really have been put in the position of trying to drag Wolves out of the mire, and Wolves should have made sure they had a manager in place before sacking McCarthy. If rumours are to believed, there were managers that turned down the position on the salary alone; if the Wolves board had put their money where there mouth is, they might have had a fighting chance. 

So, any three from five for relegation from the Premier League. Although Aston Villa would seem to be in the box seat, three points and three goals from six games in April is definitely relegation form. I think they are up against it personally. They are not helped by the fact that the teams around them seem to have hit very good form at just the right time. 

Wigan have had just about their best month in their entire history according to manager Roberto Martinez; they have beaten Newcastle United, Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool in recent times and if it wasn't for a poor display by the match officials they would have beaten Chelsea as well. Massive credit to chairman Dave Whelan for sticking by his manager, and also for Martinez for sticking to his principles. 

Mark Hughes has got Queens Park Rangers playing some good football recently, and they have beaten Tottenham, Arsenal and Liverpool in the last month or so. The form is there, but the trouble has been keeping eleven players on the pitch, and they will need eleven players to take points from Chelsea, Stoke and Man City.

Bolton manager Owen Coyle said recently that he believes his squad would have been in the top ten if they'd stayed fit all season, which may be the case as they play an attractive game; but they will need to show heart with grit and determination to stay up. They are well capable of beating Stoke and West Brom though, so they are in with a real chance. 

Blackburn on the other hand are three points from safety at the moment, and I think if they are to even have a hope they will need three wins from three games. Unfortunately they have to play Tottenham, Wigan and Chelsea so the writing may already be on the wall. Albeit Blackburn have been in the bottom three for most of the season, Steve Kean deserves a lot of credit. Few football managers have ever had to work in the face of such adversity and vitriolic abuse from the supposed supporters. These fans should be ashamed of themselves, and I wonder if any of think that if they had got behind the manager and his team a bit earlier, would they still be in this position. 


Good luck to all, and I hope the climax to the season is as exciting as it promises to be. 

SPORT SHORTS

• I am enjoying the World Championship snooker at the Crucible so far. The highlight has been Stephen Hendry's maximum in the first round, as well as him getting through to the quarter finals by beating defending champion John Higgins 13-4. 9/1 for the title anyone?
• I think playing midweek fixtures in the Premier League three and four days before the cup final is not ideal for either team. I hope the occasion is befitting of the history of the FA Cup, and I also hope unashamedly that Liverpool win. 
• Not long until the cricket season starts; England have not been on a great run of form. Will they still be the number one test side in the world after the summer?
• The Premier League title could well be decided tomorrow in the Manchester derby. I think the score will be Man City 3-1 Man Utd. The game is at the Etihad Stadium, and I don't think Man Utd's defence can live with Aguero, Tevez and co.

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Football finance: How long can it go on?

With events last week seeing two massive clubs in Britain entering administration (Portsmouth and Glasgow Rangers), this week saw a Football League founder member Aston Villa reporting a loss of £53.9 million for the 2010/11 financial year. The Birmingham based club claim to be happy with the situation, and on the face of it they have no reason not to be. They have increased overall revenue by 1.3% and commercial revenue by 15.9%, as well as decreasing borrowing by 8.3% so Randy Lerner is certainly steering the good ship Aston Villa in the right direction; but with the Aston Villa fans becoming increasingly unhappy with things on the field it highlights the balancing act that club chairmen have to perform. 

Villa Park Stadium

This led me to look a little deeper in to the general finances. I sought out the Deloitte report on finance for the top twenty clubs (based on revenue) in Europe and it does make interesting reading. (read the full report by clicking here or see overview below) Perhaps the most interesting point to note is that broadly German clubs take the large part of their revenue from commercial exploits, as where around the rest of Europe most clubs see Broadcast rights bringing in the lions share. Also, if you'd asked a group of people to guess the top ten in this Money League, not many would have put Schalke 04 in there; I'd also hedge my bets that nobody would have put Hamburger SV in the top twenty bearing in mind that they haven't even played European football. Manchester City fans will constantly tell you that they are now the richest club in the world, but they haven't even made the top ten;in fact their revenue is only just over a third of that of the top club Real Madrid. 


Perhaps the most interesting fact I found in this report is that in the group of teams between places 21-30 in this list, (see full report) you will find Everton and West Ham United. I don't think fans of these clubs would place them in the financial European top 30, bearing in mind that the lack of money at Everton has been making headlines for years and West Ham were nearly bankrupt a few years ago. It brings to mind a phrase said many times by Duncan Bannatyne of Dragons Den fame; "Turnover's for vanity, profit's for sanity!"

I think this phrase hits the proverbial nail right on the head, and I think if British football does not get its act together we will start losing the 134 professional clubs in England and Scotland at an alarming rate. Eighteen months ago, my club Liverpool were days away from administration and our £350 million debt being called in by the bank before Fenway Sports took over the club and rescued the situation. If this situation can nearly happen to Liverpool it can happen to anyone. To return to my points at the start of this article, Aston Villa are reducing debt and increasing revenue but their fans are probably as unhappy as they've been for years, so I guess my over-riding message is - Be careful what you wish for!

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The Deloitte Sports Business Group presents the Football Money League 2012